During the remainder of the 21st Century, Canada must address f0ur major issues: Military Security, Social Security, Population Growth and Immigration, Independence, and Trade Diversity. Failure to address any one of these issues will result in a Canada void of one or more of her current world advantages. The worst case could mean loss of Canada’s existence.
Many of the issues listed require changes in Canada’s relationship with the United States.. Not that Canada and the U.S. would not remain trading partners and allies, but the relationship must become more similar to the U.S. relationship with European nations than the relationship that exists today. The four issues are also interrelated, meaning that Canada cannot address them one at a time even though this post will discuss them individually, though not necessarily in the order listed.
Military Security
Canadians, as well as our government must recognize that the U.S. does not and will not protect Canada. NORAD as mutual defence is a myth. Three hundred and fifty million people in the U.S. are interested in their own security, and not ours. If Canada were attacked by China or Russia, the U.S. reaction would be almost exactly the same as it has been regarding Ukraine, and for many of the same reasons. In addition, the USA as the largest democracy in the world could change very quickly. There is a current divide in America. Republican policies are increasingly moving away from democracy and the pro democratic side of their government seams near powerless to stop them.
If Donald Trump wins re-election or if another like minded republican becomes president, Canada could find itself with another Russia as a neighbour. Suddenly Canada’s position would very much resemble Ukraine. Canada is only one U.S. election from such a scenario. If such a radical swing in U.S. politics were to occur, Canada would have no time to revise its defences. To ignore this possibility and assume that the U.S. will simply purge itself of its totalitarian impulses seems utterly foolish. For the Canadian government not to prepare for such a change in the U.S. direction is reminiscent of British Lord Chamberlain’s policies. Now is the time for Canada to take control of its own defence and to strengthen and develop its capabilities. Embarrassingly, Canada has only the 55th largest military in the world, smaller than Romania’s. Canada spends only 1.36% of our GDP on defence, smaller than 22 of the 27 other NATO members, and far short of the 2% we agreed upon with our NATO allies. NATO targets not withstanding, Canada’s government must take responsibility for Canadian Defence, determine what is needed and provide the necessary resources to protect Canada as well as support our international alliances and trade responsibilities. These actions must be made in Canada’s interests and not in cooperation with or in consideration of U.S. interests. Canada is the second largest country in the world. We have the longest coastline in the world. We border three oceans. We are members of the UN, and NATO, and are negotiating with both the Pacific Alliance Countries and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)—a free trade agreement between Canada and 10 other countries in the Asia-Pacific. This worldwide association requires that Canada play a role in securing the stability of international relations, including trade. Pretending that we are the United States’ little buddy and therefore somehow protected by some partnership is both foolhardy and mythical. Whether Canadians and Canada’s political parties like it or not, Canada must step up and accept a much larger role in our own and international security or become redundant and lose any seat at the table.
Immigration & Population Growth
To survive in the future as a country and still maintain the social security Canadians expect, Canada’s population must reach approximately 100 million by the turn of the next century. This means an enormous immigration plan, including building millions of homes, creating millions of jobs and expanding and settling a huge amount of Canada’s current empty space. Making Toronto, Montreal, Calgary or Vancouver cities of 40 million residents or more simply isn’t an alternative. Canada must create a 21st century migration into new areas. This would most efficiently be created as was the original migration, by building new railways and highways into currently thinly settled regions of Canada. In the new environmentally sensitive world of 2022, electric railways would be likely options.
This mass migration west and north would also mean a new relationship with First Nations communities. Unlike the first move west, First Nations peoples would have to be full partners in the process. Sharing the benefits of development by participating in ownership, planning and implementation. Hopefully, First Nations communities would appreciate the benefits of accepting multi-cultural communities, and expanded social interfaces along with higher standards of living. A new modern expansion of the country could make good the generations of aboriginal discontent and address long standing grievances and government failures. As a part of development, the current inhabitants of the area would gain better water systems, better housing, better schools and better hospitals. They would benefit from increased trade, more access to better, cheaper food and modern facilities. All in all , a significantly stronger, better, thriving Canada would be born.
Immigration & Population Growth
To survive in the future as a country and still maintain the social security Canadians expect, Canada’s population must reach approximately 100 million by the turn of the next century. This means an enormous immigration plan, including building millions of homes, creating millions of jobs and expanding and settling a huge amount of Canada’s current empty space. Making Toronto, Montreal, Calgary or Vancouver cities of 40 million residents or more simply isn’t an alternative. Canada must create a 21st century migration into new areas. This would most efficiently be created as was the original migration, by building new railways and highways into currently thinly settled regions of Canada. In the new environmentally sensitive world of 2022, electric railways would be likely options. This mass migration west and north would also mean a new relationship with First Nations communities. Unlike the first move west, First Nations peoples would have to be full partners in the process. Sharing the benefits of development by participating in ownership, planning and implementation. Hopefully, First Nations communities would appreciate the benefits of accepting multi-cultural communities, and expanded social interfaces along with higher standards of living. A new modern expansion of the country could make good the generations of aboriginal discontent and address long standing grievances and government failures. As a part of development, the current inhabitants of the area would gain better water systems, better housing, better schools and better hospitals. They would benefit from increased trade, more access to better, cheaper food and modern facilities. All in all , a significantly stronger, better, thriving Canada would be born.
Independence and Trade Diversity
Canada’s trade today travels primarily in one direction, south. As a result Canada is tethered to U.S. policies and objectives, whether those policies and objectives benefit Canada or not. When U.S. objectives require good relations with Canada issues may sometimes be tailored to benefit both countries. But this is rarely actually the case. President Trump’s steel and aluminum duties, President Biden’s U.S. only steel for infrastructure programs, Boeing’s phoney trade arguments, phoney softwood lumber tariffs, etc, are evidence that when U.S. political interests are at stake, Canada’s interests are not considered. All of Canada’s oil and gas exports go to the U.S. 98% of U.S. gas imports come from Canada and 48% of their oil imports come from Canada, and yet a little-known tariff costs Canadian oil companies $60 million a year for the privilege of supplying oil to the US. Canadians think that there is some mutually beneficial relationship between Canada and the U.S. There isn’t. If Canada is to thrive in the future world order, one priority is must be to significantly reduce our dependence on the U.S. We must as a nation understand the importance of pipelines to our east and west coast, reducing our current restriction to southerly trade. Make no mistake American interests will use any and all methods to counter a Canadian pivot to eastern or western trade routes, or any other Canadian move that they deem to be detrimental to U.S. interests. This is where Canadian governments and Canadians must develop a strong commitment to Canada. One example of a beneficial move away from the U.S. trade to a more Canadian focused model might be police cars. The city of Toronto buys 165 American police cars models annually at a cost of $75,000 each. In Europe where much smaller police cars are the norm, the Hyundai Kona Electric is proving to be a popular choice. Kona police car costs are unavailable but a civilian Kona electric is approximately $48,000. Even if the Hyundai variant proved to be the same price as the current American models, the savings in pollution would still be beneficial. Even gas powered European models would be more environmentally beneficial than the large American models used in Canada today. A switch by Canada would signal a trend toward a more European system and away from U.S. dominance.
Social Security
Canada is a social democracy, a condition which all Canadians expect to continue. As stated above, for our social security to continue, we will need many more people. We need more young people to sustain our social service network. We need more small businesses and we need more technological innovation. We need new industries built on new technologies.
All of these needs rely on Government investment. Canada’s government must promote evolving technologies in our schools, drastically accelerate government/university research programs into new technologies, and promote immigration to Canada by the highly educated
Summary
Short term, Canada must invest in defence and the creation of a huge migration and development to our west and north, powered by new rail networks and new roads into currently sparsely settled areas. Filling these new areas with a population generated by a massive surge in Immigration
The economic growth created and the revenue created by the enlarged Canada must be used to develop Canada’s future industrial growth, social systems and defence.
