The pundits and talking heads in Canada are all saying that we will soon have an election. Considering that for months now Canada has been a ship on stormy seas with a drunk captain and sea sick crew, putting an actual government in place cannot happen soon enough. But considering the current political climate, this next election may be the most important election in Canada’s history. Not only because of U.S. President Trump’s stated aim of annexing Canada, which itself is a seismic event for our country, but because Canadians will be literally deciding Canada’s destiny.
There are two visions for Canada being proposed, both in reaction to the current U.S. actions against the free world in general and Canada specifically. The first is appeasement. This camp proposes entering into a grand alliance with Donald Trump. Providing him with a deal that he cannot refuse and in doing so, return to the pre-Trump status quo. Members of this club include the Liberal party of Canada, Premier Ford of Ontario and Premier Smith of Alberta.
The two Premiers taking this position can be somewhat explained. They lead the two provinces that have been most successful in the traditional Canada / U.S. relationship of the past. For them, returning to what they see as normal, makes sense. While both politicians also say that they support a more diversified Canadian economy and more trading partners it isn’t clear that once their primary goal of restored U.S. centric trade was reestablished, how committed they would be to moving away from the U.S.
The Liberal party’s promotion of this appeasement approach is however less obvious, unless they believe that returning to the relationship of the past means that they can go back to ignoring Canadian defence in favour of superficial social handouts, while depending on the U.S. umbrella to protect Canada. Or maybe they feel that a return to a Canada joined at the hip with the U.S. would be seen as a political win for their party. After all they claim that they are the best party to deal with Donald Trump because they were the ones who negotiated the USMCA agreement. Not necessarily cause for a rousing endorsement.
But there is a second vision being proposed, supported by Premier Wab Kinew of Manitoba, Premier Tim Houston of Nova Scotia, Premier Francois Legault ofQuebec, Premier Eby of British Columbia, and the Conservative party of Canada. This true team Canada group propose a new direction for Canada. A future course that veers away from the current parallel course with the U.S. onto a true Canadian course. A direction that no longer relies on or even recognizes any common U.S. / Canada connection. A Canada responsible for its own defence, its own international relations, its own trade relationships and its own world standing
Where do each of these visions for Canada lead us?
Both visions lead to risks and both lead to change
APPEASEMENT
The appeasement approach leads in the short term, to renegotiation of the USMCA agreement previously negotiated with the U.S. Consider what this means for Canada. In the original NAFTA agreement Canada made concessions, with USMCA we made additional concessions, and in a new USMCA-2 we will make even more concessions. And once normal is returned the USA will continue to chip away at Canada’s dairy industry or our lumber industry, or our aircraft industry, or automotive industry etc,etc, etc. Until we eventually achieve what Trump wants. We will become absorbed into the U.S. Maybe we won’t become a political part of their country, but we will be a totally captive vassal state. It would be simply foolish to believe that USMCA-2 will be the end, there will be a 3,4,5 etc. We may see the end of Trump 1, but there will be more, and once Canada’s reluctance to resist is recognized, subsequent U.S. Presidents will demand more.
Sovereignty
On the other hand, what are the risks of the go-it-alone future? One, There is no going back. Like a woman leaving an abusive husband it’s a one way decision, a new life, a new future. Canada would have to pay its own way and this very much includes defending ourselves on our east, west and north shores. No more NORAD. Canada would have to increase its military strength significantly. Yes, we would have allies, but they would be allies chosen by Canada, with Canada’s values, objectives and needs in mind. And Canada’s allies would be partners. Canadian generals, no longer subservient to those of ‘partner’ nations. Canada may also find that smaller nations will begin to rely on us to be their umbrella, a responsibility we would need to accept. Canada would have to grow our population, and our economy. These two needs work hand-in-hand. Canada needs industry to turn our resources into finished goods. These industries need factories. Factories need people, both to produce the goods and as customers to buy them. And of course people need jobs in order to have the money to buy the goods. More people to grow our economy, more jobs for them to work at and more land for them to live on. More lane through the development of mid-Canada. More jobs through a made-in-Canada vertical economy, where Canadians turn our resources into finished manufactured goods prior to export, both driving a much more powerful economy.
Not a choice between a carbon economy or a green economy. A robust carbon economy that finances and builds a strong green future economy. Canada can, and has the resources, to do both.
Government can help of course. Government can initiate the building of infrastructure. Roads, railways, pipelines, ports and terminals for export and import. These projects will create jobs both directly and indirectly. Government can develop trade agreements that benefit Canada’s and our partners’ industries and will expand Canada’s global footprint. While Canada is looking east to Europe and west to Asia, Korea, Japan, the Philippines, India and China, we also need to pay attention to Central and South America and Africa.
Two choices? Return to our U.S. dominated existence and wait until the U.S. population votes again in their own interest to increase Canadian subjugation, or leave, and walk into the dark unknown of self determination, where our future is in our own hands. I for one choose Canada.
